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Vrchovina vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vrchovina
Vrchovina
CANC
15:00
Vyškov
Vyškov
5/27/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 34Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vrchovina38%
×Draw26%
Vyškov36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrchovina
1.38
Vyškov
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw
64%
Vrchovina or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
62%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+
17%
Vyškov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals
75%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
40%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
16%
Vyškov 1+ goals
74%
Vyškov 2+ goals
39%
Vyškov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)
51%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 1.45 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Vrchovina defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vrchovina scores more
38%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
36%

Vrchovina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vrchovina host Vyškov

May 27, 2020: Vrchovina take on Vyškov in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vrchovina host Vyškov at Stadion Nové Město na Moravě.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.