Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vrchovina vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vrchovina
Vrchovina
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
D. Prerovsky 45', 23', 19' (pen)
10/22/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 12Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Vrchovina37%
×Draw26%
Slovan Rosice38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrchovina
1.34
Slovan Rosice
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw
62%
Vrchovina or Slovan Rosice
74%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
63%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+
16%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals
74%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
39%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
15%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
74%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
39%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)
49%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 1.45 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Vrchovina defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vrchovina scores more
37%
level
26%
Slovan Rosice scores more
38%

Slovan Rosice at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. Batelka
14'
P. Duda
15'
T. Praks
18'
P. Smida
19'
D. PrerovskyPenalty
23'
D. Prerovsky
37'
D. Prerovsky
45'
D. Prerovsky
46'
K. Vasek← K. Vasek
47'
P. Vacek
49'
D. Baca
53'
R. Matulka
60'
P. Sytar← P. Sytar
67'
F. Necas
71'
R. Hlavac← R. Hlavac
78'
K. Vasek
79'
D. Kotasek← D. Kotasek
79'
D. Prerovsky← A. Fila
81'
A. Bousek← A. Bousek
85'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak
85'
J. Krejci← J. Krejci
87'
P. Drbal← P. Drbal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrchovina vs Slovan Rosice

Slovan Rosice beat Vrchovina 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 22, 2022.

Goals: D. Prerovsky (19' pen, 23', 45').

The match was played at Stadion Nové Město na Moravě in Nové Město na Moravě.