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Vrchovina vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vrchovina
Vrchovina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
8/2/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vrchovina74%
×Draw15%
Slavoj Polná12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrchovina
2.85
Slavoj Polná
1.06

Vrchovina creates 169% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 54 away

creates per match

Vrchovina
2.50
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Vrchovina
1.17
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw
88%
Vrchovina or Slavoj Polná
85%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
26%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+
53%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals
94%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
77%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
53%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
65%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
29%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)
86%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 2.50 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.85

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Vrchovina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vrchovina scores more
74%
level
15%
Slavoj Polná scores more
12%

Vrchovina at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrchovina vs Slavoj Polná

Vrchovina beat Slavoj Polná 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Nové Město na Moravě in Nové Město na Moravě.