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Vratimov vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vratimov
Vratimov
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
M. Hladik 58', 4'
D. Dziuba 26'
P. Novak 86'
T. Praks 16'
4/22/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 25Stadion Vratimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vratimov32%
×Draw22%
Slovan Rosice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vratimov
1.56
Slovan Rosice
1.89

Slovan Rosice creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vratimov
1.88
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Vratimov
2.50
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Vratimov+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vratimov ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vratimov or draw
54%
Vratimov or Slovan Rosice
78%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
68%

Winning margin

Vratimov wins by 2+
15%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vratimov 1+ goals
79%
Vratimov 2+ goals
46%
Vratimov 3+ goals
21%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
85%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
56%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Vratimov (draw refunded)
41%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vratimov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vratimov attack 1.88 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Vratimov defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vratimov scores more
32%
level
22%
Slovan Rosice scores more
46%

Slovan Rosice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Hladik
16'
T. Praks
26'
D. Dziuba
28'
P. Novak
34'
J. Elbel
38'
A. Varadi
40'
J. Teply
55'
J. M. Igbinoba
58'
M. Hladik
61'
A. Fila← A. Fila
72'
J. Vitamvas← J. Cerny
76'
V. Hajnos← V. Hajnos
86'
P. Novak
88'
V. Hajnos
89'
V. Trmal← V. Trmal
89'
J. Teply← V. Smilowski
90+1'
V. Trmal
90+2'
T. Praks
90+3'
A. Varadi← J. Piskor
90+3'
T. Hammer← T. Hammer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vratimov vs Slovan Rosice

Vratimov beat Slovan Rosice 3-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 22, 2022.

Goals: M. Hladik (4', 58'), T. Praks (16'), D. Dziuba (26'), P. Novak (86').

The match was played at Stadion Vratimov in Vratimov.