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Vratimov vs Krnov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Vratimov
Vratimov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Krnov
Krnov
10/28/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 13Stadion Vratimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vratimov64%
×Draw18%
Krnov19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vratimov
2.65
Krnov
1.39

Vratimov creates 91% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

creates per match

Vratimov
2.27
Krnov
0.93

allows per match

Vratimov
1.84
Krnov
3.02

finishing

Vratimov+0.00on par
Krnov+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vratimov ↓

Krnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Vratimov or draw
81%
Vratimov or Krnov
82%
Draw or Krnov
36%

Winning margin

Vratimov wins by 2+
43%
Krnov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vratimov 1+ goals
93%
Vratimov 2+ goals
74%
Vratimov 3+ goals
48%
Krnov 1+ goals
75%
Krnov 2+ goals
40%
Krnov 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vratimov (draw refunded)
77%
Krnov (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vratimov at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Krnov away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vratimov attack 2.27 + Krnov defence 3.02 → ÷2 → 2.65

Krnov attack 0.93 + Vratimov defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vratimov scores more
64%
level
18%
Krnov scores more
19%

Vratimov at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vratimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Vratimov 2–1 Krnov

Vratimov beat Krnov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vratimov in Vratimov.