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Vratimov vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vratimov
Vratimov
CANC
13:30
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
4/10/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 23Stadion Vratimov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vratimov49%
×Draw20%
Dolní Benešov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vratimov
2.30
Dolní Benešov
1.79

Vratimov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vratimov
1.88
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Vratimov
2.50
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Vratimov+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vratimov ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Vratimov or draw
69%
Vratimov or Dolní Benešov
80%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
51%

Winning margin

Vratimov wins by 2+
30%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vratimov 1+ goals
90%
Vratimov 2+ goals
67%
Vratimov 3+ goals
40%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
83%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
53%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Vratimov (draw refunded)
62%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vratimov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vratimov attack 1.88 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.30

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Vratimov defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vratimov scores more
49%
level
20%
Dolní Benešov scores more
31%

Vratimov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vratimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vratimov host Dolní Benešov

April 10, 2022: Vratimov take on Dolní Benešov in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vratimov host Dolní Benešov at Stadion Vratimov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.