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Vrapče Zagreb vs Trnje — League #216 2026

Vrapče Zagreb
Vrapče Zagreb
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Trnje
Trnje
4/30/2022League #216League #216 · Center - 28Igralište Vrapča

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vrapče Zagreb20%
×Draw21%
Trnje59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrapče Zagreb
1.17
Trnje
2.13

Trnje creates 82% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vrapče Zagreb
1.33
Trnje
2.25

allows per match

Vrapče Zagreb
2.00
Trnje
1.00

finishing

Vrapče Zagreb+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrapče Zagreb ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vrapče Zagreb or draw
41%
Vrapče Zagreb or Trnje
79%
Draw or Trnje
80%

Winning margin

Vrapče Zagreb wins by 2+
8%
Trnje wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Vrapče Zagreb 1+ goals
69%
Vrapče Zagreb 2+ goals
33%
Vrapče Zagreb 3+ goals
11%
Trnje 1+ goals
88%
Trnje 2+ goals
63%
Trnje 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Vrapče Zagreb (draw refunded)
26%
Trnje (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrapče Zagreb at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Trnje away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrapče Zagreb attack 1.33 + Trnje defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Trnje attack 2.25 + Vrapče Zagreb defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vrapče Zagreb scores more
20%
level
21%
Trnje scores more
59%

Trnje at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Trnje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrapče Zagreb vs Trnje

Trnje beat Vrapče Zagreb 3-1 in League #216 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište Vrapča in Zagreb.