Vrapče Zagreb 2–1 HAŠK: Result & Stats

Vrapče Zagreb

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

HAŠK

10/11/2025

League #216 · Center - 8Igralište Vrapča

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vrapče Zagreb41%

×Draw25%

HAŠK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vrapče ZagrebExpected goals in this matchHAŠK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.38

Vrapče Zagreb

1.54

HAŠK

1.38

Vrapče Zagreb creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

1.33

creates per match

0.76

2.00

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Vrapče Zagreb

1.33

HAŠK

0.76

allows per match

Vrapče Zagreb

2.00

HAŠK

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vrapče Zagreb+0.00on par

HAŠK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrapče Zagreb ↓

HAŠK →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vrapče Zagreb or draw

66%

Vrapče Zagreb or HAŠK

75%

Draw or HAŠK

59%

Winning margin

Vrapče Zagreb wins by 2+

20%

HAŠK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vrapče Zagreb 1+ goals

79%

Vrapče Zagreb 2+ goals

45%

Vrapče Zagreb 3+ goals

20%

HAŠK 1+ goals

75%

HAŠK 2+ goals

40%

HAŠK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vrapče Zagreb (draw refunded)

55%

HAŠK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vrapče Zagreb at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

HAŠK away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vrapče Zagreb attack 1.33 + HAŠK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

HAŠK attack 0.76 + Vrapče Zagreb defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vrapče Zagreb scores more

41%

level

25%

HAŠK scores more

34%

Vrapče Zagreb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vrapče Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff