Vranov nad Topľou 3–1 Stará Ľubovňa: Result & Stats

Vranov nad Topľou

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stará Ľubovňa

3/9/2024

3. liga - East · East - 17Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou57%

×Draw20%

Stará Ľubovňa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vranov nad TopľouExpected goals in this matchStará Ľubovňa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.35

Vranov nad Topľou

2.24

Stará Ľubovňa

1.35

Vranov nad Topľou creates 66% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 14 away

2.69

creates per match

1.50

1.21

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou

2.69

Stará Ľubovňa

1.50

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou

1.21

Stará Ľubovňa

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Stará Ľubovňa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Stará Ľubovňa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw

77%

Vranov nad Topľou or Stará Ľubovňa

80%

Draw or Stará Ľubovňa

43%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+

35%

Stará Ľubovňa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals

89%

Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals

65%

Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals

38%

Stará Ľubovňa 1+ goals

74%

Stará Ľubovňa 2+ goals

39%

Stará Ľubovňa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)

72%

Stará Ľubovňa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Stará Ľubovňa away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Stará Ľubovňa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.24

Stará Ľubovňa attack 1.50 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more

57%

level

20%

Stará Ľubovňa scores more

23%

Vranov nad Topľou at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff