Vranov nad Topľou 3–0 Slovan Giraltovce

Vranov nad Topľou

FT

3 – 0

Slovan Giraltovce

9/26/2020

3. liga - East · East - 10Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou73%

×Draw16%

Slovan Giraltovce11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vranov nad TopľouExpected goals in this matchSlovan Giraltovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.85

Vranov nad Topľou

2.51

Slovan Giraltovce

0.85

Vranov nad Topľou creates 195% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 38 away

2.69

creates per match

0.50

1.21

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou

2.69

Slovan Giraltovce

0.50

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou

1.21

Slovan Giraltovce

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw

89%

Vranov nad Topľou or Slovan Giraltovce

84%

Draw or Slovan Giraltovce

27%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+

51%

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals

92%

Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals

71%

Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals

45%

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals

57%

Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals

21%

Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)

87%

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.51

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more

73%

level

16%

Slovan Giraltovce scores more

11%

Vranov nad Topľou at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff