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Slovan Giraltovce vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
3/12/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 16Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slovan Giraltovce42%
×Draw27%
Vranov nad Topľou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Giraltovce
1.36
Vranov nad Topľou
1.13

Slovan Giraltovce creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 81 away

creates per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.24
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Slovan Giraltovce
1.11
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Giraltovce ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovan Giraltovce or draw
69%
Slovan Giraltovce or Vranov nad Topľou
73%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
58%

Winning margin

Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
20%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
74%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
39%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
16%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
68%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
31%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
57%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Giraltovce at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Giraltovce attack 1.24 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Giraltovce scores more
42%
level
27%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
31%

Slovan Giraltovce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Giraltovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Slovan Giraltovce 1–1 Vranov nad Topľou

Slovan Giraltovce and Vranov nad Topľou drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión MFK Slovan Giraltovce in Giraltovce.