Vranov nad Topľou 6–2 Rudňany: Result & Stats

Vranov nad Topľou

FT

6 – 2

Rudňany

9/18/2021

3. liga - East · East - 9Futbalový štadión FK Bukóza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou77%

×Draw13%

Rudňany10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vranov nad TopľouExpected goals in this matchRudňany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.34

1.17

Vranov nad Topľou

3.34

Rudňany

1.17

Vranov nad Topľou creates 185% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

2.69

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou

2.69

Rudňany

1.13

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou

1.21

Rudňany

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Rudňany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Rudňany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw

90%

Vranov nad Topľou or Rudňany

87%

Draw or Rudňany

23%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+

59%

Rudňany wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals

96%

Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals

84%

Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals

63%

Rudňany 1+ goals

69%

Rudňany 2+ goals

33%

Rudňany 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)

89%

Rudňany (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Rudňany away — creates 1.13, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Rudňany defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.34

Rudňany attack 1.13 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more

77%

level

13%

Rudňany scores more

10%

Vranov nad Topľou at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff