Vranov nad Topľou vs Družstevník Plavnica

Vranov nad Topľou

CANC

14:30

Družstevník Plavnica

5/9/2021

3. liga - East · East - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vranov nad Topľou66%

×Draw18%

Družstevník Plavnica17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vranov nad TopľouExpected goals in this matchDružstevník Plavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.19

Vranov nad Topľou

2.51

Družstevník Plavnica

1.19

Vranov nad Topľou creates 111% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 6 away

2.69

creates per match

1.17

1.21

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Vranov nad Topľou

2.69

Družstevník Plavnica

1.17

allows per match

Vranov nad Topľou

1.21

Družstevník Plavnica

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vranov nad Topľou ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vranov nad Topľou or draw

83%

Vranov nad Topľou or Družstevník Plavnica

82%

Draw or Družstevník Plavnica

34%

Winning margin

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+

44%

Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals

92%

Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals

71%

Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals

45%

Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals

70%

Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals

33%

Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)

80%

Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vranov nad Topľou at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.21 · 78 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vranov nad Topľou attack 2.69 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.51

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Vranov nad Topľou scores more

66%

level

18%

Družstevník Plavnica scores more

17%

Vranov nad Topľou at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff