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Vrakuňa vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Vrakuňa
Vrakuňa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
11/13/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 15Športový areál OFK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vrakuňa20%
×Draw21%
Hamsik Academy59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrakuňa
1.14
Hamsik Academy
2.08

Hamsik Academy creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vrakuňa
0.86
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Vrakuňa
2.71
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Vrakuňa+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrakuňa ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vrakuňa or draw
41%
Vrakuňa or Hamsik Academy
79%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
80%

Winning margin

Vrakuňa wins by 2+
8%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Vrakuňa 1+ goals
68%
Vrakuňa 2+ goals
32%
Vrakuňa 3+ goals
11%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
87%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
61%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Vrakuňa (draw refunded)
26%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrakuňa at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrakuňa attack 0.86 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Vrakuňa defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vrakuňa scores more
20%
level
21%
Hamsik Academy scores more
59%

Hamsik Academy at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hamsik Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrakuňa vs Hamsik Academy

Hamsik Academy beat Vrakuňa 2-1 in 3. liga - West on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Športový areál OFK in Dunajská Lužná.