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Vrakuňa vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - West 2020

Vrakuňa
Vrakuňa
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
4/1/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 20Štadión Šk Vrakuňa Bratislava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vrakuňa24%
×Draw22%
Fomat Martin55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrakuňa
1.25
Fomat Martin
2.00

Fomat Martin creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vrakuňa
0.86
Fomat Martin
1.28

allows per match

Vrakuňa
2.71
Fomat Martin
1.65

finishing

Vrakuňa+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrakuňa ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vrakuňa or draw
45%
Vrakuňa or Fomat Martin
78%
Draw or Fomat Martin
76%

Winning margin

Vrakuňa wins by 2+
10%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Vrakuňa 1+ goals
71%
Vrakuňa 2+ goals
36%
Vrakuňa 3+ goals
13%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
86%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
59%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Vrakuňa (draw refunded)
30%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrakuňa at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrakuňa attack 0.86 + Fomat Martin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fomat Martin attack 1.28 + Vrakuňa defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vrakuňa scores more
24%
level
22%
Fomat Martin scores more
55%

Fomat Martin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrakuňa vs Fomat Martin

Fomat Martin beat Vrakuňa 4-0 in 3. liga - West on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Šk Vrakuňa Bratislava in Bratislava.