Vrakuňa 0–6 Beluša: Result & Stats | 3. liga - West

Vrakuňa

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Beluša

9/10/2022

3. liga - West · West - 6Štadión Šk Vrakuňa Bratislava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vrakuňa18%

×Draw20%

Beluša62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VrakuňaExpected goals in this matchBeluša

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.16

Vrakuňa

1.05

Beluša

2.16

Beluša creates 106% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

0.86

creates per match

1.60

2.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vrakuňa

0.86

Beluša

1.60

allows per match

Vrakuňa

2.71

Beluša

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vrakuňa+0.00on par

Beluša+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrakuňa ↓

Beluša →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vrakuňa or draw

38%

Vrakuňa or Beluša

80%

Draw or Beluša

82%

Winning margin

Vrakuňa wins by 2+

6%

Beluša wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Vrakuňa 1+ goals

65%

Vrakuňa 2+ goals

28%

Vrakuňa 3+ goals

9%

Beluša 1+ goals

88%

Beluša 2+ goals

63%

Beluša 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Vrakuňa (draw refunded)

22%

Beluša (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrakuňa at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Beluša away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrakuňa attack 0.86 + Beluša defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Beluša attack 1.60 + Vrakuňa defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vrakuňa scores more

18%

level

20%

Beluša scores more

62%

Beluša at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff