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VPS vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkönen 2026

VPS
VPS
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
7/24/2020YkkönenYkkönen · Round 4Elisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VPS54%
×Draw22%
SJK Akatemia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.94
SJK Akatemia
1.23

VPS creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 39 away

creates per match

VPS
1.92
SJK Akatemia
1.23

allows per match

VPS
1.24
SJK Akatemia
1.95

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

VPS or draw
76%
VPS or SJK Akatemia
78%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
46%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
31%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
86%
VPS 2+ goals
58%
VPS 3+ goals
30%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
71%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
35%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
69%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.92 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.94

SJK Akatemia attack 1.23 + VPS defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

VPS scores more
54%
level
22%
SJK Akatemia scores more
24%

VPS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VPS vs SJK Akatemia

VPS beat SJK Akatemia 3-1 in Ykkönen on July 24, 2020.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion in Vaasa.