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VPS vs PS Kemi Kings — Veikkausliiga 2018

VPS
VPS
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
5/3/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 6Elisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

VPS51%
×Draw25%
PS Kemi Kings25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.63
PS Kemi Kings
1.06

VPS creates 54% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 21 away

creates per match

VPS
1.44
PS Kemi Kings
0.76

allows per match

VPS
1.37
PS Kemi Kings
1.81

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

PS Kemi Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

VPS or draw
75%
VPS or PS Kemi Kings
75%
Draw or PS Kemi Kings
49%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
27%
PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
80%
VPS 2+ goals
48%
VPS 3+ goals
22%
PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
65%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
29%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
67%
PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.37 · 93 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.44 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.76 + VPS defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VPS scores more
51%
level
25%
PS Kemi Kings scores more
25%

VPS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: VPS 3–1 PS Kemi Kings

VPS beat PS Kemi Kings 3-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 3, 2018.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion in Vaasa.