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VPS vs OTP — Suomen Cup 2018

VPS
VPS
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
OTP
OTP
5/30/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundLemonsoft Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

VPS33%
×Draw21%
OTP47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.80
OTP
2.18

OTP creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

VPS
1.93
OTP
3.00

allows per match

VPS
1.36
OTP
1.67

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
OTP+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

OTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

VPS or draw
53%
VPS or OTP
79%
Draw or OTP
67%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
16%
OTP wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
83%
VPS 2+ goals
54%
VPS 3+ goals
27%
OTP 1+ goals
89%
OTP 2+ goals
64%
OTP 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
41%
OTP (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

OTP away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.93 + OTP defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

OTP attack 3.00 + VPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

VPS scores more
33%
level
21%
OTP scores more
47%

OTP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "OTP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VPS 3 – 1 OTP

VPS beat OTP 3-1 in Suomen Cup on May 30, 2023.

The match was played at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa.