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VPS vs KPV Kokkola — Suomen Cup 2018

VPS
VPS
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkola
2/16/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Fennia Arena (Vaasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VPS22%
×Draw22%
KPV Kokkola56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.11
KPV Kokkola
1.90

KPV Kokkola creates 71% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

VPS
1.93
KPV Kokkola
2.43

allows per match

VPS
1.36
KPV Kokkola
0.29

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VPS or draw
44%
VPS or KPV Kokkola
78%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
78%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
8%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
67%
VPS 2+ goals
30%
VPS 3+ goals
10%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
85%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
56%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
28%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.93 + KPV Kokkola defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

KPV Kokkola attack 2.43 + VPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VPS scores more
22%
level
22%
KPV Kokkola scores more
56%

KPV Kokkola at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "KPV Kokkola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VPS vs KPV Kokkola

KPV Kokkola beat VPS 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Fennia Arena (Vaasa).