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VPS vs Honka — Veikkausliiga 2026

VPS
VPS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Honka
Honka
4/29/2023VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 4Lemonsoft Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

VPS36%
×Draw26%
Honka38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.29
Honka
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 84 away

creates per match

VPS
1.44
Honka
1.29

allows per match

VPS
1.37
Honka
1.14

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

Honka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

VPS or draw
62%
VPS or Honka
74%
Draw or Honka
64%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
16%
Honka wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
72%
VPS 2+ goals
37%
VPS 3+ goals
14%
Honka 1+ goals
74%
Honka 2+ goals
38%
Honka 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
49%
Honka (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.37 · 93 matches

Honka away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.44 + Honka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Honka attack 1.29 + VPS defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

VPS scores more
36%
level
26%
Honka scores more
38%

Honka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: VPS 0–0 Honka

VPS and Honka drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa.