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VPS vs HIFK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

VPS
VPS
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
10/2/2022VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Relegation Round - 3Lemonsoft Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

VPS43%
×Draw25%
HIFK Helsinki31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.50
HIFK Helsinki
1.23

VPS creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

creates per match

VPS
1.44
HIFK Helsinki
1.08

allows per match

VPS
1.37
HIFK Helsinki
1.56

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

VPS or draw
69%
VPS or HIFK Helsinki
75%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
57%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
21%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
78%
VPS 2+ goals
44%
VPS 3+ goals
19%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
71%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
35%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
58%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.37 · 93 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.44 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + VPS defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

VPS scores more
43%
level
25%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
31%

VPS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: VPS 4–0 HIFK Helsinki

VPS beat HIFK Helsinki 4-0 in Veikkausliiga on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa.