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VPS vs FF Jaro — Suomen Cup 2018

VPS
VPS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FF Jaro
FF Jaro
2/21/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 5Fennia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

VPS37%
×Draw22%
FF Jaro41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS
1.73
FF Jaro
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

VPS
1.93
FF Jaro
2.35

allows per match

VPS
1.36
FF Jaro
1.53

finishing

VPS+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

VPS or draw
59%
VPS or FF Jaro
78%
Draw or FF Jaro
63%

Winning margin

VPS wins by 2+
19%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

VPS 1+ goals
82%
VPS 2+ goals
52%
VPS 3+ goals
25%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
84%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
55%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

VPS (draw refunded)
47%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS attack 1.93 + FF Jaro defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

FF Jaro attack 2.35 + VPS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VPS scores more
37%
level
22%
FF Jaro scores more
41%

FF Jaro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VPS vs FF Jaro

FF Jaro beat VPS 2-0 in Suomen Cup on February 21, 2020.

The match was played at Fennia Arena in Vaasa.