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FF Jaro vs VPS — Suomen Cup 2018

FF Jaro
FF Jaro
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
VPS
VPS
6/11/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundJakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FF Jaro14%
×Draw15%
VPS72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Jaro
1.30
VPS
3.06

VPS creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

FF Jaro
1.44
VPS
4.11

allows per match

FF Jaro
2.00
VPS
1.16

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par
VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

VPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw
28%
FF Jaro or VPS
85%
Draw or VPS
86%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+
5%
VPS wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals
73%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
37%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
14%
VPS 1+ goals
95%
VPS 2+ goals
80%
VPS 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)
16%
VPS (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

VPS away — creates 4.11, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.44 + VPS defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

VPS attack 4.11 + FF Jaro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FF Jaro scores more
14%
level
15%
VPS scores more
72%

VPS at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: FF Jaro 2–2 VPS

FF Jaro and VPS drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on June 11, 2025.

The match was played at Jakobstads Centralplan in Pietarsaari (Jacobstad).