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VPS II vs KuFu-98 — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

VPS II
VPS II
FT
0 – 3
KuFu-98
KuFu-98
6/26/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 9Elisa Stadion (Vaasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

VPS II47%
×Draw20%
KuFu-9833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS II
2.23
KuFu-98
1.84

VPS II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

creates per match

VPS II
2.23
KuFu-98
1.80

allows per match

VPS II
1.88
KuFu-98
2.23

finishing

VPS II+0.00on par
KuFu-98+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS II ↓

KuFu-98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

VPS II or draw
67%
VPS II or KuFu-98
80%
Draw or KuFu-98
53%

Winning margin

VPS II wins by 2+
28%
KuFu-98 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

VPS II 1+ goals
89%
VPS II 2+ goals
65%
VPS II 3+ goals
38%
KuFu-98 1+ goals
84%
KuFu-98 2+ goals
55%
KuFu-98 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

VPS II (draw refunded)
59%
KuFu-98 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

KuFu-98 away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS II attack 2.23 + KuFu-98 defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.23

KuFu-98 attack 1.80 + VPS II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

VPS II scores more
47%
level
20%
KuFu-98 scores more
33%

VPS II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "VPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: VPS II 0–3 KuFu-98

KuFu-98 beat VPS II 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on June 26, 2019.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion (Vaasa).