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VPS II vs KajHa — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

VPS II
VPS II
FT
0 – 2
KajHa
KajHa
9/21/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 20Elisa Stadion (Vaasa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

VPS II56%
×Draw20%
KajHa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPS II
2.29
KajHa
1.46

VPS II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

VPS II
2.23
KajHa
1.05

allows per match

VPS II
1.88
KajHa
2.36

finishing

VPS II+0.00on par
KajHa+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPS II ↓

KajHa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

VPS II or draw
76%
VPS II or KajHa
80%
Draw or KajHa
44%

Winning margin

VPS II wins by 2+
35%
KajHa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VPS II 1+ goals
90%
VPS II 2+ goals
66%
VPS II 3+ goals
40%
KajHa 1+ goals
77%
KajHa 2+ goals
43%
KajHa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

VPS II (draw refunded)
70%
KajHa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPS II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

KajHa away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPS II attack 2.23 + KajHa defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.29

KajHa attack 1.05 + VPS II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VPS II scores more
56%
level
20%
KajHa scores more
24%

VPS II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: VPS II 0–2 KajHa

KajHa beat VPS II 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion (Vaasa).