VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 0–4 Veres Rivne

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Veres Rivne

H. Pasich 83'

M. Shestakov 71', 30' (pen), 2'

5/12/2021

Persha Liga · Round 6Stadion Meteor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka26%

×Draw28%

Veres Rivne46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VPK-Ahro ShevchenkivkaExpected goals in this matchVeres Rivne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.33

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

0.91

Veres Rivne

1.33

Veres Rivne creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

0.88

creates per match

1.31

1.36

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

0.88

Veres Rivne

1.31

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

1.36

Veres Rivne

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par

Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Veres Rivne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw

54%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Veres Rivne

72%

Draw or Veres Rivne

74%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+

9%

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals

60%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals

23%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals

6%

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

74%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

38%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)

36%

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.88 + Veres Rivne defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Veres Rivne attack 1.31 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more

26%

level

28%

Veres Rivne scores more

46%

Veres Rivne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

M. Shestakov

30'

M. ShestakovPenalty

46'

G. Gadrani← L. Koberidze

46'

I. Budnyak← I. Tyshchenko

69'

R. Gegedosh← M. Sergiychuk

71'

M. Shestakov

74'

V. Gorbachenko← S. Kulish

75'

V. Kucherov← M. Polyulyakh

78'

V. Tymofienko← V. Dakhnovskyi

83'

B. Shmygelskyi← O. Belyaev

83'

H. Pasich

85'

A. Danylyuk← D. Nemchaninov

85'

D. Povoroznyuk← M. Shestakov

86'

T. Sukhar← P. Ksyonz

VPK-Ahro

Veres

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Solovyev

46'▲G. Gadrani←▼L. Koberidze

46'▲I. Budnyak←▼I. Tyshchenko

74'▲V. Gorbachenko←▼S. Kulish

83'▲B. Shmygelskyi←▼O. Belyaev

86'▲T. Sukhar←▼P. Ksyonz

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka substitutes

GadraniBudnyakGorbachenkoShmygelskyiSukharKhubutiaKichaShevchenkoBilyiKrasovVorobeyShapovalov

Manager: Y. Virt

69'▲R. Gegedosh←▼M. Sergiychuk

75'▲V. Kucherov←▼M. Polyulyakh

78'▲V. Tymofienko←▼V. Dakhnovskyi

85'▲A. Danylyuk←▼D. Nemchaninov

85'▲D. Povoroznyuk←▼M. Shestakov

Veres Rivne substitutes

GegedoshKucherovTymofienkoDanylyukPovoroznyukMakhnevGukBabiychukSavoshkoYushchyshyn