VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3–1 Real Pharm

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Pharm

K. Sydorenko 70' (pen)

Y. Yaremenko 65'

S. Aleksanov 54'

V. Polishchuk 11'

9/28/2019

Druha Liga - Group B · Group B - 12Stadion Metallurh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka83%

×Draw12%

Real Pharm5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VPK-Ahro ShevchenkivkaExpected goals in this matchReal Pharm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

0.51

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

2.68

Real Pharm

0.51

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka creates 425% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

3.10

creates per match

0.52

0.50

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

3.10

Real Pharm

0.52

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

0.50

Real Pharm

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Real Pharm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw

95%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Real Pharm

88%

Draw or Real Pharm

17%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+

62%

Real Pharm wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals

93%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals

74%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals

49%

Real Pharm 1+ goals

40%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

9%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)

94%

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 3.10, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 3.10 + Real Pharm defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.68

Real Pharm attack 0.52 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more

83%

level

12%

Real Pharm scores more

5%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

V. Polishchuk

31'

M. Dongauzer← O. Loginov

38'

A. Margaryan← I. Budnyak

46'

E. Smirnov← O. Krasov

54'

S. Aleksanov

57'

M. Kolomoets← S. Peredistyi

64'

I. Glynyanyi← V. Tymoshevskyi

65'

Y. Yaremenko

68'

B. Prybluda← A. Rudenko

70'

K. SydorenkoPenalty

72'

V. Filipchuk← V. Polishchuk

72'

M. Shcherbak← A. Shapovalenko

75'

I. Sokolyanskyi← A. Sharko

78'

V. Storozhuk← O. Dubina

VPK-Ahro

Real

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Solovyev

31'▲M. Dongauzer←▼O. Loginov

38'▲A. Margaryan←▼I. Budnyak

46'▲E. Smirnov←▼O. Krasov

57'▲M. Kolomoets←▼S. Peredistyi

75'▲I. Sokolyanskyi←▼A. Sharko

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka substitutes

DongauzerMargaryanSmirnovKolomoetsSokolyanskyi

Manager: O. Spitsyn

64'▲I. Glynyanyi←▼V. Tymoshevskyi

68'▲B. Prybluda←▼A. Rudenko

72'▲V. Filipchuk←▼V. Polishchuk

72'▲M. Shcherbak←▼A. Shapovalenko

78'▲V. Storozhuk←▼O. Dubina

Real Pharm substitutes

GlynyanyiPrybludaFilipchukShcherbakStorozhuk

Druha Liga - Group B: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3–1 Real Pharm

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka beat Real Pharm 3-1 in Druha Liga - Group B on September 28, 2019.

Goals: V. Polishchuk (11'), S. Aleksanov (54'), Y. Yaremenko (65'), K. Sydorenko (70' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Metallurh in Novomoskovs'k.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Real Pharm — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Druha Liga - Group B: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3–1 Real Pharm