VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

I. Lytvynenko 65'

11/13/2021

Persha Liga · Round 18Stadion Meteor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka33%

×Draw30%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VPK-Ahro ShevchenkivkaExpected goals in this matchPodillya Khmelnytskyi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.10

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

1.02

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 51 away

0.88

creates per match

0.84

1.36

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

0.88

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

0.84

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

1.36

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par

Podillya Khmelnytskyi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Podillya Khmelnytskyi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw

63%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Podillya Khmelnytskyi

70%

Draw or Podillya Khmelnytskyi

67%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+

13%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals

64%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals

27%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals

8%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1+ goals

67%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 2+ goals

30%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)

47%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Podillya Khmelnytskyi away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.88 + Podillya Khmelnytskyi defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Podillya Khmelnytskyi attack 0.84 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more

33%

level

30%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi scores more

37%

Podillya Khmelnytskyi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Podillya Khmelnytskyi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

D. Lyopa

34'

S. Palyukh

34'

I. Karpenko

58'

S. Kulish← O. Yarovenko

63'

V. Kaverin← S. Morarenko

65'

65'

65'

69'

69'

S. Koval← D. Ostrovskyi

71'

L. Koberidze← I. Lytvynenko

76'

I. Budnyak← D. Lyopa

76'

T. Sukhar← Vicente

78'

A. Panasenkov← V. Savoshko

79'

D. Zhykol← A. Vashchyshyn

85'

A. Panasenkov

VPK-Ahro

Podillya

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lytvynenk

▼

Yarovenko

Manager: O. Grytsay

58'▲S. Kulish←▼O. Yarovenko

71'▲L. Koberidze←▼I. Lytvynenko

76'▲I. Budnyak←▼D. Lyopa

76'▲T. Sukhar←▼Vicente

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka substitutes

KulishKoberidzeBudnyakSukharDudikKhubutiaShevchenkoNapolovBabichyn

Manager: V. Kostyshyn

63'▲V. Kaverin←▼S. Morarenko

69'▲S. Koval←▼D. Ostrovskyi

78'▲A. Panasenkov←▼V. Savoshko

79'▲D. Zhykol←▼A. Vashchyshyn

Podillya Khmelnytskyi substitutes

KaverinKovalPanasenkovZhykolValionVolynetsMatveenkoPrylyopa

Persha Liga: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka beat Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1-0 in Persha Liga on November 13, 2021.

Goals: I. Lytvynenko (65').

The match was played at Stadion Meteor in Dnipropetrovs'k.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi — Persha Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Persha Liga: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi