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VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Olimpik Donetsk — Persha Liga 2019

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
CANC
14:00
Olimpik Donetsk
Olimpik Donetsk
4/16/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 25Stadion Meteor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka33%
×Draw29%
Olimpik Donetsk38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.07
Olimpik Donetsk
1.18

Olimpik Donetsk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.88
Olimpik Donetsk
1.00

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.36
Olimpik Donetsk
1.27

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par
Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Olimpik Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw
62%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Olimpik Donetsk
71%
Draw or Olimpik Donetsk
67%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+
13%
Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals
66%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals
29%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals
9%
Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals
69%
Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals
33%
Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)
46%
Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Olimpik Donetsk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.88 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Olimpik Donetsk attack 1.00 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more
33%
level
29%
Olimpik Donetsk scores more
38%

Olimpik Donetsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olimpik Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Olimpik Donetsk

April 16, 2022: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka take on Olimpik Donetsk in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Olimpik Donetsk at Stadion Meteor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.