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VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Nyva Ternopil — Persha Liga 2019

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
CANC
14:00
Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
5/14/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 29Stadion Meteor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka34%
×Draw28%
Nyva Ternopil38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.11
Nyva Ternopil
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 77 away

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.88
Nyva Ternopil
0.99

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.36
Nyva Ternopil
1.34

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par
Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Nyva Ternopil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw
62%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Nyva Ternopil
72%
Draw or Nyva Ternopil
66%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+
14%
Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals
67%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals
30%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals
10%
Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
69%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
33%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)
48%
Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.88 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nyva Ternopil attack 0.99 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more
34%
level
28%
Nyva Ternopil scores more
38%

Nyva Ternopil at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Nyva Ternopil

May 14, 2022: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka take on Nyva Ternopil in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Nyva Ternopil at Stadion Meteor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.