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VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka vs Metal Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
CANC
15:00
Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
3/26/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 22Stadion Meteor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka27%
×Draw28%
Metal Kharkiv45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.97
Metal Kharkiv
1.35

Metal Kharkiv creates 39% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 50 away

creates per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
0.88
Metal Kharkiv
1.34

allows per match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka
1.36
Metal Kharkiv
1.06

finishing

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par
Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka ↓

Metal Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or draw
55%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka or Metal Kharkiv
72%
Draw or Metal Kharkiv
73%

Winning margin

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+
10%
Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals
62%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals
25%
VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals
7%
Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
74%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
39%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)
37%
Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Metal Kharkiv away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.88 + Metal Kharkiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.34 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more
27%
level
28%
Metal Kharkiv scores more
45%

Metal Kharkiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Metal Kharkiv

March 26, 2022: VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka take on Metal Kharkiv in Persha Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka host Metal Kharkiv at Stadion Meteor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.