Vovovo 2–1 Tambuti: Result & Stats | Premier League

Vovovo

FT

2 – 1

Tambuti

12/4/2021

Premier League · Round 4Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vovovo44%

×Draw24%

Tambuti32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VovovoExpected goals in this matchTambuti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.32

Vovovo

1.60

Tambuti

1.32

Vovovo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

1.67

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Vovovo

1.33

Tambuti

0.98

allows per match

Vovovo

1.67

Tambuti

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vovovo+0.00on par

Tambuti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vovovo ↓

Tambuti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vovovo or draw

68%

Vovovo or Tambuti

76%

Draw or Tambuti

56%

Winning margin

Vovovo wins by 2+

22%

Tambuti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vovovo 1+ goals

80%

Vovovo 2+ goals

47%

Vovovo 3+ goals

22%

Tambuti 1+ goals

73%

Tambuti 2+ goals

38%

Tambuti 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vovovo (draw refunded)

58%

Tambuti (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vovovo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Tambuti away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vovovo attack 1.33 + Tambuti defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tambuti attack 0.98 + Vovovo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vovovo scores more

44%

level

24%

Tambuti scores more

32%

Vovovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vovovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff