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Vovovo vs Manzini Wanderers — Premier League 2020

Vovovo
Vovovo
FT
2 – 3
Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
12/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vovovo40%
×Draw25%
Manzini Wanderers35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vovovo
1.43
Manzini Wanderers
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

creates per match

Vovovo
1.33
Manzini Wanderers
0.99

allows per match

Vovovo
1.67
Manzini Wanderers
1.52

finishing

Vovovo+0.00on par
Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vovovo ↓

Manzini Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vovovo or draw
65%
Vovovo or Manzini Wanderers
75%
Draw or Manzini Wanderers
60%

Winning margin

Vovovo wins by 2+
19%
Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vovovo 1+ goals
76%
Vovovo 2+ goals
42%
Vovovo 3+ goals
17%
Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
74%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
38%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vovovo (draw refunded)
53%
Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vovovo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vovovo attack 1.33 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Vovovo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vovovo scores more
40%
level
25%
Manzini Wanderers scores more
35%

Vovovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vovovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vovovo vs Manzini Wanderers

Manzini Wanderers beat Vovovo 3-2 in Premier League on December 28, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.