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Vovovo vs Manzini Sea Birds — Premier League 2020

Vovovo
Vovovo
FT
3 – 3
Manzini Sea Birds
Manzini Sea Birds
11/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vovovo38%
×Draw25%
Manzini Sea Birds37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vovovo
1.42
Manzini Sea Birds
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Vovovo
1.33
Manzini Sea Birds
1.14

allows per match

Vovovo
1.67
Manzini Sea Birds
1.51

finishing

Vovovo+0.00on par
Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vovovo ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vovovo or draw
63%
Vovovo or Manzini Sea Birds
75%
Draw or Manzini Sea Birds
62%

Winning margin

Vovovo wins by 2+
18%
Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vovovo 1+ goals
76%
Vovovo 2+ goals
41%
Vovovo 3+ goals
17%
Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals
75%
Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals
41%
Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vovovo (draw refunded)
51%
Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vovovo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vovovo attack 1.33 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Vovovo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vovovo scores more
38%
level
25%
Manzini Sea Birds scores more
37%

Vovovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vovovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vovovo vs Manzini Sea Birds

Vovovo and Manzini Sea Birds drew 3-3 in Premier League on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.