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Vovovo vs Denver — Premier League 2020

Vovovo
Vovovo
FT
0 – 0
Denver
Denver
3/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vovovo36%
×Draw27%
Denver37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vovovo
1.24
Denver
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 41 away

creates per match

Vovovo
1.33
Denver
0.85

allows per match

Vovovo
1.67
Denver
1.15

finishing

Vovovo+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vovovo ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vovovo or draw
63%
Vovovo or Denver
73%
Draw or Denver
64%

Winning margin

Vovovo wins by 2+
16%
Denver wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vovovo 1+ goals
71%
Vovovo 2+ goals
35%
Vovovo 3+ goals
13%
Denver 1+ goals
72%
Denver 2+ goals
36%
Denver 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vovovo (draw refunded)
49%
Denver (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vovovo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Denver away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vovovo attack 1.33 + Denver defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Denver attack 0.85 + Vovovo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vovovo scores more
36%
level
27%
Denver scores more
37%

Denver at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vovovo vs Denver

Vovovo and Denver drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.