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Votoraty vs Sporting Paulinense — Paulista Série B 2026

Votoraty
Votoraty
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Paulinense
Sporting Paulinense
D. Kauan 74'
F. Anselmo 85'
E. Ramos 17'
5/30/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Votoraty47%
×Draw25%
Sporting Paulinense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Votoraty
1.54
Sporting Paulinense
1.13

Votoraty creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Votoraty
1.80
Sporting Paulinense
0.86

allows per match

Votoraty
1.40
Sporting Paulinense
1.29

finishing

Votoraty+0.00on par
Sporting Paulinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Votoraty ↓

Sporting Paulinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Votoraty or draw
72%
Votoraty or Sporting Paulinense
75%
Draw or Sporting Paulinense
53%

Winning margin

Votoraty wins by 2+
24%
Sporting Paulinense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Votoraty 1+ goals
79%
Votoraty 2+ goals
45%
Votoraty 3+ goals
20%
Sporting Paulinense 1+ goals
68%
Sporting Paulinense 2+ goals
31%
Sporting Paulinense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Votoraty (draw refunded)
63%
Sporting Paulinense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Votoraty at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Sporting Paulinense away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Votoraty attack 1.80 + Sporting Paulinense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sporting Paulinense attack 0.86 + Votoraty defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Votoraty scores more
47%
level
25%
Sporting Paulinense scores more
28%

Votoraty at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Votoraty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
E. Ramos
74'
D. Kauan
85'
F. Anselmo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Votoraty vs Sporting Paulinense

Sporting Paulinense beat Votoraty 2-1 in Paulista Série B on May 30, 2026.

Goals: E. Ramos (17'), D. Kauan (74'), F. Anselmo (85').