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Votoraty vs Flamengo SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Votoraty
Votoraty
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
Geuvanio 66'
Kaique Clemente 58'
4/18/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Votoraty37%
×Draw25%
Flamengo SP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Votoraty
1.38
Flamengo SP
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

Votoraty
1.80
Flamengo SP
1.37

allows per match

Votoraty
1.40
Flamengo SP
0.95

finishing

Votoraty+0.00on par
Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Votoraty ↓

Flamengo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Votoraty or draw
63%
Votoraty or Flamengo SP
75%
Draw or Flamengo SP
63%

Winning margin

Votoraty wins by 2+
17%
Flamengo SP wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Votoraty 1+ goals
75%
Votoraty 2+ goals
40%
Votoraty 3+ goals
16%
Flamengo SP 1+ goals
75%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
40%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Votoraty (draw refunded)
50%
Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Votoraty at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Votoraty attack 1.80 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.38

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Votoraty defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Votoraty scores more
37%
level
25%
Flamengo SP scores more
37%

Votoraty at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Votoraty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
Kaique Clemente
66'
Geuvanio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Votoraty vs Flamengo SP

Votoraty and Flamengo SP drew 1-1 in Paulista Série B on April 18, 2026.

Goals: Kaique Clemente (58'), Geuvanio (66').