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Voska Sport vs Vardar Skopje — Second League 2019

Voska Sport
Voska Sport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
4/23/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 25Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Voska Sport56%
×Draw22%
Vardar Skopje22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voska Sport
2.00
Vardar Skopje
1.17

Voska Sport creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Voska Sport
3.13
Vardar Skopje
1.60

allows per match

Voska Sport
0.73
Vardar Skopje
0.87

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw
78%
Voska Sport or Vardar Skopje
78%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
44%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+
33%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals
86%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
59%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
32%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
69%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
33%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)
72%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 3.13 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 2.00

Vardar Skopje attack 1.60 + Voska Sport defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Voska Sport scores more
56%
level
22%
Vardar Skopje scores more
22%

Voska Sport at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Voska Sport 2–1 Vardar Skopje

Voska Sport beat Vardar Skopje 2-1 in Second League on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.