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Vardar Skopje vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
8/31/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Toše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vardar Skopje53%
×Draw24%
Voska Sport22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vardar Skopje
1.69
Voska Sport
1.00

Vardar Skopje creates 69% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 33 away

creates per match

Vardar Skopje
1.56
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Vardar Skopje
1.13
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Skopje ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Skopje or draw
78%
Vardar Skopje or Voska Sport
76%
Draw or Voska Sport
47%

Winning margin

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
29%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
82%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
50%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
24%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
63%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
26%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
71%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Skopje at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Skopje attack 1.56 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vardar Skopje scores more
53%
level
24%
Voska Sport scores more
22%

Vardar Skopje at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Vardar Skopje 1–3 Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Vardar Skopje 3-1 in First League on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Toše Proeski Arena in Skopje.