Voska Sport 5–3 Detonit Plachkovica: Result & Stats

Voska Sport

FT

5 – 3

HT: 4 – 0

Detonit Plachkovica

5/9/2023

Second League · Round 29Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Voska Sport63%

×Draw20%

Detonit Plachkovica17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Voska SportExpected goals in this matchDetonit Plachkovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.03

Voska Sport

2.14

Detonit Plachkovica

1.03

Voska Sport creates 108% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

3.13

creates per match

1.33

0.73

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Voska Sport

3.13

Detonit Plachkovica

1.33

allows per match

Voska Sport

0.73

Detonit Plachkovica

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Voska Sport+0.00on par

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voska Sport ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Voska Sport or draw

83%

Voska Sport or Detonit Plachkovica

80%

Draw or Detonit Plachkovica

37%

Winning margin

Voska Sport wins by 2+

39%

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Voska Sport 1+ goals

88%

Voska Sport 2+ goals

63%

Voska Sport 3+ goals

36%

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

64%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

28%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Voska Sport (draw refunded)

78%

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voska Sport at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voska Sport attack 3.13 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.14

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Voska Sport defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Voska Sport scores more

63%

level

20%

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

17%

Voska Sport at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff