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Vorwärts Brigittenau vs Austria XIII — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Vorwärts Brigittenau
Vorwärts Brigittenau
FT
2 – 0
Austria XIII
Austria XIII
8/20/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Sportplatz WAF Gruabn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Vorwärts Brigittenau41%
×Draw22%
Austria XIII36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.83
Austria XIII
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 75 away

creates per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.74
Austria XIII
1.52

allows per match

Vorwärts Brigittenau
1.89
Austria XIII
1.93

finishing

Vorwärts Brigittenau+0.00on par
Austria XIII+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorwärts Brigittenau ↓

Austria XIII →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vorwärts Brigittenau or draw
64%
Vorwärts Brigittenau or Austria XIII
78%
Draw or Austria XIII
59%

Winning margin

Vorwärts Brigittenau wins by 2+
22%
Austria XIII wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vorwärts Brigittenau 1+ goals
84%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 2+ goals
54%
Vorwärts Brigittenau 3+ goals
28%
Austria XIII 1+ goals
82%
Austria XIII 2+ goals
51%
Austria XIII 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vorwärts Brigittenau (draw refunded)
53%
Austria XIII (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorwärts Brigittenau at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Austria XIII away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.93 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorwärts Brigittenau attack 1.74 + Austria XIII defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Austria XIII attack 1.52 + Vorwärts Brigittenau defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vorwärts Brigittenau scores more
41%
level
22%
Austria XIII scores more
36%

Vorwärts Brigittenau at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vorwärts Brigittenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vorwärts Brigittenau vs Austria XIII

Vorwärts Brigittenau beat Austria XIII 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz WAF Gruabn in Wien.