Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2–2 Wohnbau Dietach

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Wohnbau Dietach

11/2/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 14Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden31%

×Draw23%

Wohnbau Dietach46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vortuna Bad LeonfeldenExpected goals in this matchWohnbau Dietach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.83

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.46

Wohnbau Dietach

1.83

Wohnbau Dietach creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

1.80

creates per match

2.16

1.50

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.80

Wohnbau Dietach

2.16

allows per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.50

Wohnbau Dietach

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or draw

54%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or Wohnbau Dietach

77%

Draw or Wohnbau Dietach

69%

Winning margin

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+

14%

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals

77%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals

43%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals

18%

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals

84%

Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals

54%

Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)

40%

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.80 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.16 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more

31%

level

23%

Wohnbau Dietach scores more

46%

Wohnbau Dietach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff