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Vortuna Bad Leonfelden vs Gmunden — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 2
Gmunden
Gmunden
6/13/2025Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 30Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden54%
×Draw21%
Gmunden26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
2.20
Gmunden
1.48

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden creates 49% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.80
Gmunden
1.47

allows per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.50
Gmunden
2.60

finishing

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par
Gmunden+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden ↓

Gmunden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or draw
74%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or Gmunden
79%
Draw or Gmunden
46%

Winning margin

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+
32%
Gmunden wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals
89%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals
64%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals
37%
Gmunden 1+ goals
77%
Gmunden 2+ goals
43%
Gmunden 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)
68%
Gmunden (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Gmunden away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.80 + Gmunden defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Gmunden attack 1.47 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more
54%
level
21%
Gmunden scores more
26%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vortuna Bad Leonfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vortuna Bad Leonfelden vs Gmunden

Gmunden beat Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 6-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on June 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden in Bad Leonfelden.