Vorskla U19 3–1 Zhytomyr U19: Result & Stats

Vorskla U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Zhytomyr U19

10/5/2024

U19 League · Round 9Stadion Ltava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vorskla U1935%

×Draw26%

Zhytomyr U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla U19Expected goals in this matchZhytomyr U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.40

Vorskla U19

1.31

Zhytomyr U19

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.60

creates per match

1.42

1.37

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Vorskla U19

1.60

Zhytomyr U19

1.42

allows per match

Vorskla U19

1.37

Zhytomyr U19

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Zhytomyr U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Zhytomyr U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw

61%

Vorskla U19 or Zhytomyr U19

74%

Draw or Zhytomyr U19

65%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+

15%

Zhytomyr U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals

73%

Vorskla U19 2+ goals

38%

Vorskla U19 3+ goals

14%

Zhytomyr U19 1+ goals

75%

Zhytomyr U19 2+ goals

41%

Zhytomyr U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Zhytomyr U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Zhytomyr U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Zhytomyr U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zhytomyr U19 attack 1.42 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more

35%

level

26%

Zhytomyr U19 scores more

39%

Zhytomyr U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zhytomyr U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff