Vorskla U19 1–1 Rukh Vynnyky U19: Result & Stats

Vorskla U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rukh Vynnyky U19

9/14/2024

U19 League · Round 6Stadion Ltava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vorskla U1939%

×Draw24%

Rukh Vynnyky U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla U19Expected goals in this matchRukh Vynnyky U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.50

Vorskla U19

1.54

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.60

creates per match

1.64

1.37

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Vorskla U19

1.60

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.64

allows per match

Vorskla U19

1.37

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Rukh Vynnyky U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Rukh Vynnyky U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw

63%

Vorskla U19 or Rukh Vynnyky U19

76%

Draw or Rukh Vynnyky U19

61%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+

19%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals

79%

Vorskla U19 2+ goals

45%

Vorskla U19 3+ goals

20%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 1+ goals

78%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 2+ goals

44%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Rukh Vynnyky U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Rukh Vynnyky U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rukh Vynnyky U19 attack 1.64 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more

39%

level

24%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 scores more

37%

Vorskla U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vorskla U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff