Vorskla U19 3–1 Minaj U19: Result & Stats

Vorskla U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Minaj U19

5/10/2024

U19 League · Round 28Stadion Molodizhnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vorskla U1950%

×Draw24%

Minaj U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vorskla U19Expected goals in this matchMinaj U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.19

Vorskla U19

1.74

Minaj U19

1.19

Vorskla U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.37

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Vorskla U19

1.60

Minaj U19

1.00

allows per match

Vorskla U19

1.37

Minaj U19

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Minaj U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Minaj U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw

74%

Vorskla U19 or Minaj U19

76%

Draw or Minaj U19

50%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+

27%

Minaj U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals

82%

Vorskla U19 2+ goals

52%

Vorskla U19 3+ goals

25%

Minaj U19 1+ goals

70%

Minaj U19 2+ goals

33%

Minaj U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Minaj U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Minaj U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Minaj U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Minaj U19 attack 1.00 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more

50%

level

24%

Minaj U19 scores more

26%

Vorskla U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vorskla U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff