Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vorskla U19 vs Kolos Kovalivka U19 — U19 League 2023

Vorskla U19
Vorskla U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kolos Kovalivka U19
Kolos Kovalivka U19
11/1/2024U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 12Stadion Ltava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vorskla U1939%
×Draw26%
Kolos Kovalivka U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla U19
1.41
Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vorskla U19
1.60
Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.33

allows per match

Vorskla U19
1.37
Kolos Kovalivka U19
1.22

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par
Kolos Kovalivka U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Kolos Kovalivka U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw
64%
Vorskla U19 or Kolos Kovalivka U19
74%
Draw or Kolos Kovalivka U19
61%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+
18%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals
76%
Vorskla U19 2+ goals
41%
Vorskla U19 3+ goals
17%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 1+ goals
74%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 2+ goals
39%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Kolos Kovalivka U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Kolos Kovalivka U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kolos Kovalivka U19 attack 1.33 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more
39%
level
26%
Kolos Kovalivka U19 scores more
36%

Vorskla U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vorskla U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Vorskla U19 0–0 Kolos Kovalivka U19

Vorskla U19 and Kolos Kovalivka U19 drew 0-0 in U19 League on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ltava in Poltava.