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Vorskla U19 vs Dnipro-1 U19 — U19 League 2023

Vorskla U19
Vorskla U19
FT
1 – 3
Dnipro-1 U19
Dnipro-1 U19
10/14/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 1Stadion Molodizhnyy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vorskla U1935%
×Draw25%
Dnipro-1 U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla U19
1.40
Dnipro-1 U19
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vorskla U19
1.60
Dnipro-1 U19
1.67

allows per match

Vorskla U19
1.37
Dnipro-1 U19
1.20

finishing

Vorskla U19+0.00on par
Dnipro-1 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla U19 ↓

Dnipro-1 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vorskla U19 or draw
60%
Vorskla U19 or Dnipro-1 U19
75%
Draw or Dnipro-1 U19
65%

Winning margin

Vorskla U19 wins by 2+
16%
Dnipro-1 U19 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vorskla U19 1+ goals
75%
Vorskla U19 2+ goals
41%
Vorskla U19 3+ goals
17%
Dnipro-1 U19 1+ goals
78%
Dnipro-1 U19 2+ goals
45%
Dnipro-1 U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Dnipro-1 U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Dnipro-1 U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla U19 attack 1.60 + Dnipro-1 U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dnipro-1 U19 attack 1.67 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vorskla U19 scores more
35%
level
25%
Dnipro-1 U19 scores more
40%

Dnipro-1 U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dnipro-1 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vorskla U19 vs Dnipro-1 U19

Dnipro-1 U19 beat Vorskla U19 3-1 in U19 League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Molodizhnyy in Poltava.