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Vorskla Poltava W vs Lanchkhuti — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Vorskla Poltava W
Vorskla Poltava Wadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lanchkhuti
Lanchkhuti
8/27/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd Qualifying Round - Semi-FinalsSiauliai central stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vorskla Poltava W87%
×Draw9%
Lanchkhuti4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vorskla Poltava W
3.42
Lanchkhuti
0.66

Vorskla Poltava W creates 418% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vorskla Poltava W
2.25
Lanchkhuti
0.20

allows per match

Vorskla Poltava W
1.13
Lanchkhuti
4.60

finishing

Vorskla Poltava W+0.00on par
Lanchkhuti+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vorskla Poltava W ↓

Lanchkhuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Vorskla Poltava W or draw
96%
Vorskla Poltava W or Lanchkhuti
91%
Draw or Lanchkhuti
13%

Winning margin

Vorskla Poltava W wins by 2+
71%
Lanchkhuti wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vorskla Poltava W 1+ goals
97%
Vorskla Poltava W 2+ goals
85%
Vorskla Poltava W 3+ goals
64%
Lanchkhuti 1+ goals
48%
Lanchkhuti 2+ goals
14%
Lanchkhuti 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vorskla Poltava W (draw refunded)
96%
Lanchkhuti (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vorskla Poltava W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Lanchkhuti away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vorskla Poltava W attack 2.25 + Lanchkhuti defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 3.42

Lanchkhuti attack 0.20 + Vorskla Poltava W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Vorskla Poltava W scores more
87%
level
9%
Lanchkhuti scores more
4%

Vorskla Poltava W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Vorskla Poltava W 5–0 Lanchkhuti

Vorskla Poltava W beat Lanchkhuti 5-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 27, 2025.

The match was played at Siauliai central stadium.